Geomagnetic activity · 72h
Unknown
Conditions cannot be confirmed
At least one DONKI source was unavailable during this run.
NASA DONKI · scheduled hourly
The Sun,
made legible.
Earth-directed eruptions, geomagnetic storms, and aurora potential—translated into a calm, readable signal.
Last checked:
Earth-impact outlookCME forecast pending
A CME erupted and is awaiting analysis.
- Last check
- Degraded
- Future forecasts
- Unknown
- Recent model times · 72h
- Unknown
- M/X flares · 7d
- Unknown
Earth-impact outlook
What is happening now
Observed storms and modelled CME arrival times are deliberately kept distinct.
WSA-Enlil forecast
CME outlook
Partial outlook
These records are available, but one or more DONKI feeds failed this check.
Recent CME assessments
Pending forecasts and analysed misses stay separate from Earth-arrival forecasts.
Predicted miss
CME
analysed: not currently predicted to reach Earth
Predicted miss
CME
analysed: not currently predicted to reach Earth
Awaiting forecast
CME
arrival prediction not yet available (no WSA-Enlil run yet)
Predicted miss
CME
analysed: not currently predicted to reach Earth
Awaiting forecast
CME
arrival prediction not yet available (no WSA-Enlil run yet)
Awaiting forecast
CME
arrival prediction not yet available (no WSA-Enlil run yet)
Awaiting forecast
CME
arrival prediction not yet available (no WSA-Enlil run yet)
Predicted miss
CME
analysed: not currently predicted to reach Earth
One connected story
From solar eruption to Earth
Events are connected only when NASA's own linked-event graph connects them.
-
01
Flare
X-ray radiation reaches Earth first. M and X classes can disrupt HF radio on the daylit side.
-
02
CME
A cloud of solar plasma may follow. WSA-Enlil models whether and when its shock reaches Earth.
-
03
Storm
DONKI records the geomagnetic response. Kp supplies the shared context for aurora and spacecraft effects.
Seven-day signal
Recent solar activity
High-signal events only: M/X flares, Earth-relevant CMEs, and geomagnetic storms.
Recent activity is incomplete
The feed needs to recover before this seven-day view can be trusted.
What it means for you
Turn a signal into context
Broad guidance, not a local sky forecast or an operational warning service.
Aurora chasers
Kp suggests latitude—not clear skies
Higher Kp makes aurora plausible farther from the poles. Darkness, cloud, light pollution, and the storm's timing still decide what you see.
Radio operators
Flare class frames HF impact
M-class flares map to minor-to-moderate R1–R2 degradation. X-class events can produce R3+ blackouts on Earth's daylit side.
Satellite operators
Storm strength frames risk
At Kp 5, mild drag and charging effects become plausible. At Kp 7+, elevated LEO drag and surface-charging risk merit attention.
Northern Hemisphere guide
How far south could aurora reach?
Approximate geomagnetic latitude bands used throughout this watcher. Geographic latitude differs, and visibility is never guaranteed.
| Index | Latitude | Plain-language context |
|---|---|---|
| Kp 5 | ~55°High latitudes | Scotland, Scandinavia, Canada |
| Kp 6 | ~50°Auroral zone expands | Northern UK and northern US border states |
| Kp 7 | ~45°Mid-latitudes | Much of the northern US and central Europe |
| Kp 8 | ~40°Well into mid-latitudes | A rare, severe geomagnetic response |
The honesty layer
Quiet by design.
Explicit about uncertainty.
Space-Weather Watch is a deterministic translation layer over NASA DONKI—not a second forecast model. It reports material changes, keeps missing analysis visible, and never lets an unavailable source masquerade as a quiet Sun.
- 01Fetch
Solar flares, CMEs, WSA-Enlil analyses, and storms from NASA DONKI.
- 02Connect
Group events with NASA's linked-event graph; never invent causal links.
- 03Detect
Compare versioned snapshots and suppress routine noise below material thresholds.
- 04Publish
Update idempotent GitHub Issues and this static page. No server or database.